Volume 44, Number 175,
October-December 2013
The Takeover of Soy and Dutch Disease in Argentina:
An Agricultural Curse?
Alicia Puyana and Agostina Constantino

The behavior of the non-tradable goods sector reveals the most interesting results. Table 1 shows the average annual growth rates of the tradable sectors and gdp growth per capita in three different periods. As can be observed, in 1982-1991, both the growth rates of manufactures as well as gdp were negative, reflecting the crisis of the state-guided industrialization model, which was in effect in the decades prior. In the following decade (1991-1999) the growth of these two sectors recovers. However, from 1999-2011, also in accordance with what the theory predicts, the agricultural sector decelerates (due to setbacks for activities that were not in boom, such as sorghum and sunflowers). In this case, the growth rate is less than the rate for gdp per capita starting in 1999 (before 1999, both rates were greater than that of the gdp). However, as can be seen in Table 1, starting in 1999 the growth rate of the manufacturing sector accelerated (which also surpassed that of total gdp), going from annual growth of 3.7% for the period 1991-1999 to a 4.2% annual average starting in that year. In other words, the boom does not appear to intensify setbacks of manufactures nor stop it.

Now, the idea here is to propose that an interesting process is under way in Argentina, illustrated in Figure 6. The manufacturing sector has receded as the source of gdp to represent only 17.8% in 2011. This practically uninterrupted decline of the sector began at the end of the 1960s with a slight recovery between 2000 and 2004. The trajectory of the agricultural sector showed discrimination during import substitution almost no reactivation with the neoliberal model. In 2011, this sector represented 9% of gdp. The recovery years for the two sectors, 2002-2004, suggest the effects of the devaluation of the peso in Argentina.

Figure 6. The Share of Different Sectors in gdp (%)
Source: World Bank.

It could be said that the setback to the manufacturing sector was the most significant, as its share in gdp fell by 24 percentage points between 1965 and 2011, while agriculture only fell by half a point. If the structural change is considered from 1996 to 2011, manufactures were cut back by four percentage points of gdp while agriculture advanced 3.1percentage points. These divergent paths would seem to confirm the re-agriculturalization of the national economy.

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PROBLEMAS DEL DESARROLLO. REVISTA LATINOAMERICANA DE ECONOMÍA, Volume 49, Number 195 October-December 2018 is a quarterly publication by the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria, Coyoacán, CP 04510, México, D.F. by Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas, Circuito Mario de la Cueva, Ciudad Universitaria, Coyoacán,
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