Volume 44, Number 174,
July-September 2013
Central America: The Urgency of Coherent
Commercial Diversification
Juan Sebastián Castillo, Esther Aguilera and Carmen García Cortijo
Defining the Sub-Model for International Commerce

A sub-model was proposed to confirm the results, where the endogenous variable continued to be gdp (Yit), and in addition to the effects of the crisis (fit), another three items were included as exogenous variables (Pαi) to measure the importance of diversifying exports for a single partner versus spreading trade among all partners, including the rest of the world. This proposed index is the quotient of two measurements of entropy (expression 13), but with different groupings of countries. The analytic formula is as follows:


Where the numerator IEAqi was calculated for an economy where exports are shared between a single country (a) and the rest of the world. The denominator IEAri represents an economy where commerce is shared between all partners and the rest of the world. Respectively, the expressions IEAqi and IEAri are as follows:



  • i = (1: Costa Rica, 2: El Salvador, 3: Guatemala, 4: Honduras, 5: Nicaragua).

  • q = a, rest of the world.

  • a = (1: US, 2: China, 3: EU).

  • r = US, China, EU, rest of the world.

The following model was then defined:


With its summations:


Or, the following, which is the same:


The main results of the general model (expression 6) and the sub-model (expression 16) showed that geographic diversification contributes to the growth of Central America, but not to its product basket. This is so true that of the items considered, raw materials, extracted products and manufactured goods, only extracted products contributed positively to the gdp, but not significantly.

Published in Mexico, 2012-2017 © D.R. Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM).
PROBLEMAS DEL DESARROLLO. REVISTA LATINOAMERICANA DE ECONOMÍA, Volume 49, Number 192, January-March is a quarterly publication by the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria, Coyoacán, CP 04510, México, D.F. by Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas, Circuito Mario de la Cueva, Ciudad Universitaria, Coyoacán,
CP 04510, México, D.F. Tel (52 55) 56 23 01 05 and (52 55) 56 24 23 39, fax (52 55) 56 23 00 97, www.probdes.iiec.unam.mx, revprode@unam.mx. Journal Editor: Alicia Girón González. Reservation of rights to exclusive use of the title: 04-2012-070613560300-203, ISSN: pending. Person responsible for the latest update of this issue: Minerva García, Circuito Maestro Mario de la Cueva s/n, Ciudad Universitaria, Coyoacán, CP 04510, México D.F., latest update: Feb 23th, 2018.
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