Volume 44, Number 174,
July-September 2013
Central America: The Urgency of Coherent
Commercial Diversification
Juan Sebastián Castillo, Esther Aguilera and Carmen García Cortijo
Defining the General International Commerce Model

The first definition of a general model for international commerce in Central America will allow us to validate/refute the working hypotheses H1, H2 and H3:


With: t = 1993, 1994,…, 2009.

i = 1, 2,…, 5. (1: Costa Rica, 2: El Salvador, 3: Guatemala, 4: Honduras, 5: Nicaragua).

h = 1, 2, 3. (1: raw materials, 2: extracted products, 3: manufactured goods).

j = 1, 2,…, 4. (1: Free Trade Agreement with US, 2: Trade with China, 3: Trade with the UE, 4: 2008 crisis).


i is the i-th country, t are the years, h is the product classification, j represents structure changes, αi are the fixed transverse effects and μ is the common constant term. The endogenous variable (Yit) is the gdp and exogenous variables include: the three product diversification indices (IDPhit), a geographic diversification index (IDGit) and four fictitious variables (fjit).

The sums of the expression (6) can be broken down as:




When these expressions are substituted in, another expression of (6) is obtained:


Published in Mexico, 2012-2017 © D.R. Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM).
PROBLEMAS DEL DESARROLLO. REVISTA LATINOAMERICANA DE ECONOMÍA, Volume 49, Number 192, January-March is a quarterly publication by the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria, Coyoacán, CP 04510, México, D.F. by Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas, Circuito Mario de la Cueva, Ciudad Universitaria, Coyoacán,
CP 04510, México, D.F. Tel (52 55) 56 23 01 05 and (52 55) 56 24 23 39, fax (52 55) 56 23 00 97, www.probdes.iiec.unam.mx, revprode@unam.mx. Journal Editor: Alicia Girón González. Reservation of rights to exclusive use of the title: 04-2012-070613560300-203, ISSN: pending. Person responsible for the latest update of this issue: Minerva García, Circuito Maestro Mario de la Cueva s/n, Ciudad Universitaria, Coyoacán, CP 04510, México D.F., latest update: Feb 23th, 2018.
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The online journal Problemas del Desarrollo. Revista Latinoamericana de Economía corresponds to the printed edition of the same title with ISSN 0301-7036