Volume 44, Number 173,
April-June 2013
Automatic Stabilization and Social Security:
Brazil, Mexico, Costa Rica and Chile
Eloy Fisher
Description of Data ( ...continuation )

Figure 3 compares the relationship between benefits flows and unemployment in these countries, using the same conversions explained earlier. Unlike Figure 2, the relation is negative, although the broader distribution of data prevents the determination of statistical significance between the variables.

Figure 3. Distribution Diagrams of Social Security Program Benefits
and Unemployment in Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica and Mexico
Source: Prepared by the author. From left to right, bottom to top, the simple correlations for the changes (in logs) of contributions (in usd), calculated for the inss of Brazil, the pasis of Chile, the ccss of Costa Rica and the imss of Mexico.

RESULTS

First, this section will describe the parameters of the models estimated using the regressions. The second part will briefly comment on the results.

Analysis of the models yielded interesting findings. First, as shown in the figures, excluding the pasis did not significantly affect the results. In both models, increasing the difference by one percentage point for unemployment brought about nearly 0.34 percentage points difference in the contributions to social security systems. This means that a single percentage point increase in gdp over the past year is reflected in a difference of 0.34 percentage points on contributions over the past year. In times of growth, the progression of contributions has significant stabilizing effects, and in times of recession, these systems increase the available revenue of its enrollees, with significant decreases in contributions.

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PROBLEMAS DEL DESARROLLO. REVISTA LATINOAMERICANA DE ECONOMÍA, Volume 49, Number 194 July-September 2018 is a quarterly publication by the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria, Coyoacán, CP 04510, México, D.F. by Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas, Circuito Mario de la Cueva, Ciudad Universitaria, Coyoacán,
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