Volume 44, Number 173,
April-June 2013
Automatic Stabilization and Social Security:
Brazil, Mexico, Costa Rica and Chile
Eloy Fisher
Description of Data

The data used here is annual and covers a time period from 1990 to 2009. Data from Chile was kindly provided by the Pensions Superintendent of the Republic of Chile (http://www.safp.cl/) in usd. This public spending includes not only fiscal contributions for pasis and derived expenditures, but also marginal welfare funds for death and funds for recognition (funds that in the old system were recognize in the private system). ICSS data was kindly provided directly by the Budget Office of the Costa Rican Social Security Fund (http://portal.ccss.sa.cr) in usd. Data from the Mexican system was provided by the Division of Multilateral Affairs of the imss (http://www.imss.gob.mx/) in Mexican pesos. Finally, social security data from Brazil is publicly available, accessed through the Historical Database of the Social Security Statistical Yearbook (http://www3.dataprev.gov.br/infologo/), as well as inflows and outflows to the general social welfare regime (in reais or reals).

Data provided in local currency was converted into dollars. Inflation in the model was defined as the average percentage change over the year in price levels, taken from the 2011 World Economic Outlook from the International Monetary Fund. All variables were converted to logs.

Below is a figure showing the contribution and benefit flows. Figure 2 compares correlations between these contributions and unemployment in the four countries sampled (from left to right, bottom to top, Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica and Mexico). The figure effectively shows the inverse relationship of the programs in Brazil, Chile and Mexico and makes clear the a-cyclical inelasticity of the Chilean pasis.

Figure 2. Distribution Diagrams of Contributions to Social Security Programs and Unemployment in Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica and Mexico
Source: Prepared by the author. From left to right, bottom to top, the simple correlations for the changes (in logs) of contributions (in usd), calculated for the inss of Brazil, the pasis of Chile, the ccss of Costa Rica and the imss of Mexico.

Published in Mexico, 2012-2017 © D.R. Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM).
PROBLEMAS DEL DESARROLLO. REVISTA LATINOAMERICANA DE ECONOMÍA, Volume 49, Number 192, January-March is a quarterly publication by the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria, Coyoacán, CP 04510, México, D.F. by Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas, Circuito Mario de la Cueva, Ciudad Universitaria, Coyoacán,
CP 04510, México, D.F. Tel (52 55) 56 23 01 05 and (52 55) 56 24 23 39, fax (52 55) 56 23 00 97, www.probdes.iiec.unam.mx, revprode@unam.mx. Journal Editor: Alicia Girón González. Reservation of rights to exclusive use of the title: 04-2012-070613560300-203, ISSN: pending. Person responsible for the latest update of this issue: Minerva García, Circuito Maestro Mario de la Cueva s/n, Ciudad Universitaria, Coyoacán, CP 04510, México D.F., latest update: Feb 23th, 2018.
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The online journal Problemas del Desarrollo. Revista Latinoamericana de Economía corresponds to the printed edition of the same title with ISSN 0301-7036